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A starting number

An estimate can be influenced by a number encountered first, even when that number is not very informative.

First number → judgment

An everyday example

A displayed starting price can become a reference point when you judge a later offer. It is not proof of value.

A reference is not evidence

Make your own estimate

Before seeing an offered number, write a rough estimate based on relevant information or comparable examples.

Estimate independently

Check the evidence

Ask what facts justify your answer. Awareness helps you inspect a judgment, but does not make you immune to bias.

What supports my number?

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